Market Activity and Settlement Trends
Property settlement volumes have ticked up, with a 3.2% increase nationwide in the last financial year. Modest growth is reported across most states, particularly in Queensland. The total value of settled properties climbed 9.4%, reflecting price appreciation. This broader recovery signals better business prospects and more client demand for lending advice. However, refinance volumes are down 21% from peak levels, pointing to fewer opportunities for refinance-driven business compared to earlier periods. The shift may require brokers to focus more on purchase customers and diversification of services.
Housing Policy and Regulatory Changes
Several policy shifts are in play. The housing sector is seeing calls for systemic reform, with targets to increase social and affordable housing stocks and review planning frameworks. If these recommendations advance, brokers could see expanded volumes from government-supported segments and new buyer activity from lower-income households. Greater construction activity, if delivered, also translates to more lending opportunities.
In Queensland, new seller disclosure laws take effect from 1 August 2025. Sellers will be legally required to provide comprehensive disclosure about properties before a contract is signed, including details such as title, encumbrances, and compliance records. This move reduces risk of disputes, promotes transparency, and may increase buyer confidence. For brokers, smoother transactions and more informed clients may ease deal flow but demand updates to compliance scripts and client guidance steps.
Reserve Bank Outlook and Rate Uncertainty
Interest rate settings remain a source of uncertainty. The Reserve Bank has held the cash rate steady at 3.85% despite expectations of a cut. Divergent board opinions and a surprise rise in unemployment complicated the narrative, with the majority seeking further confirmation that inflation is sustainably within target. For brokers, this stable but high rate environment sustains pressure on borrowers and keeps affordability stretched, potentially slowing some parts of the lending market. The rate outlook for later in 2025 and early 2026 is becoming more positive, with analysts expecting a gradual shift to lower rates as inflation shows signs of easing. This could release pent-up demand but, in the meantime, competition for new business remains intense.
Construction and Economic Challenges
Insolvencies in the construction sector have surged, especially in Victoria. The trend reflects continued fallout from supply chain pressures, high building costs, and tighter lending conditions. Victoria leads the nation’s insolvency statistics, which can impact broker pipelines due to projects stalling or failing, and greater caution from lenders involved in construction finance. Brokers in affected regions may need to manage more difficult client scenarios, including contract failures and distressed assets. The broader impact on new housing supply could feed back into housing affordability and buyer confidence, shaping the lending landscape over the coming year.
Professionalism and Education
A new professional designation, the Mortgage Finance Professional Australia (MFPA), is changing the way brokers demonstrate expertise and ethics. Developed in partnership with a leading university, the MFPA requires extensive experience, verified settlements, and commitment to ongoing education. This signals significant progress in raising industry standards, increasing public trust, and encouraging brokers to sharpen their credentials. Brokers achieving this status can expect to stand out with clients looking for demonstrable professionalism and ethical conduct.
Summary:
Mortgage brokers are navigating a complex environment marked by heightened professional standards, renewed buyer interest, evolving compliance demands, and persistent economic headwinds. The MFPA designation offers a clear upside for brokers seeking to distinguish themselves, while market activity presents growth in property purchase lending despite shrinkage in refinancing. The near-term climate requires nimbleness, with regulatory change and macroeconomic variables shaping both risks and opportunities.
