Australian mortgage brokers are navigating a market defined by affordability constraints, persistent supply bottlenecks, shifting migration trends, and a new layer of global political complexity.
Opportunities and strengths for mortgage brokers:
- Interest rate environment: With inflation moving toward the Reserve Bank’s target range, there is an expectation of further rate cuts through 2025. Rate reductions, when they do occur, stabilise mortgage stress for existing borrowers and open fresh opportunities to service refinancing and attract first-home buyers who have been on the sidelines. Lenders’ policies have become more flexible since the tightening spurred by the Royal Commission, giving brokers added leeway to source competitive loans for varied borrower profiles.
- Relative homeowner stability: While mortgage stress was a significant challenge in 2024, recent months have seen a modest improvement; the proportion of at-risk mortgage holders dipped after the RBA’s first rate cut since 2020. Homeowners, especially those who purchased since 2023 under more conservative guidelines, are displaying increased financial resilience compared to previous years.
- Refinancing and loan structuring demand: The complexity of Australia’s housing market and patchwork regulatory approaches continues to drive consumers toward brokers for specialised advice, especially as more households seek to restructure loans to manage repayments or unlock equity in volatile conditions.
Private Funding OZ-wide
All types of real estate security are considered
Funds to complete – 1st or 2nd mortgage
80% NON-CODE Private Funding
Direct enquiries welcome – No accreditation
Australia-wide non-code private funds. Set your own fee.
Click here to email your scenario and receive a 1 business hour response
1 business hour response or call 1800 4 OASIS – 1800 462 747
Key risks and challenges:
- Declining homeownership and affordability: The homeownership rate now stands at approximately 66%, continuing a long-term, gradual decline. Only around a third of younger Australians (ages 25–29) own a home, and nearly half of all homeowners are experiencing difficulty meeting repayments. The gap between achievable borrowing (on median incomes) and current property values remains substantial, curbing volume growth for brokers among entry-level buyers.
- Rising unemployment – but limited direct impact on housing values: The jobless rate is forecast to rise from 4.0% to 4.5% by year’s end. However, there’s little sign this will spark a sharp fall in property values or widespread forced sales; the effect is nuanced, with most stress concentrated among lower-income renters rather than homeowners at scale. Nonetheless, if unemployment edges higher still or hits mortgage holders more broadly, arrears and forced sales could rise—posing a risk to brokers’ loan books.
- Supply and construction delays: Fast-tracked planning approvals alone have not increased actual housing delivery. Approvals are up in some states, but systemic lags in site works, cost escalations, and key infrastructure tie-ups mean new builds hit the market only slowly. This bottleneck limits brokers’ growth in the new-home and construction-loan segments, while maintaining upward pressure on both prices and rents.
- Interstate migration shifts: Queensland’s surge in dwelling values (up 85% since 2020) has triggered affordability concerns, prompting some residents to consider relocating to Victoria, where prices are lower. This movement may rebalance lending opportunities between states but also puts local brokers at risk of client churn in overheated markets.
The “Trump factor” and global trade risks:
US policy, specifically the new tariffs introduced by President Trump, adds fresh uncertainty. Sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on much of Australia’s exports and on construction input goods are flowing through to higher domestic building costs. This can further inflate the price of new homes and renovations, limiting the borrowing power of prospective buyers and putting more strain on developers’ feasibility.
At the same time, Trump’s trade war with China weighs on global sentiment and is likely to slow Chinese demand for Australian resources. Flow-on effects include the potential for the RBA to accelerate rate cuts in response to softer economic data and global headwinds. For brokers, the implication is a complicated outlook: rate relief can induce more borrowing and refinancing activity, but only if consumer confidence and job security are maintained.
Private Funding OZ-wide
All types of real estate security are considered
Funds to complete – 1st or 2nd mortgage
80% NON-CODE Private Funding
Direct enquiries welcome – No accreditation
Australia-wide non-code private funds. Set your own fee.
Click here to email your scenario and receive a 1 business hour response
1 business hour response or call 1800 4 OASIS – 1800 462 747
Strategic recommendations for mortgage brokers:
- Deepen client education: With volatility in both economic policy and market conditions, brokers should proactively update clients about the changing rate environment, implications of global trade events, and the local dynamics shaping housing supply and demand.
- Emphasize service to stressed clients: Position your offering to assist not only those seeking new finance but also existing homeowners at risk or approaching hardship. Debt restructuring, term extensions, and product switching are set to remain in high demand.
- Follow supply-side developments closely: Stay abreast of planning reforms, infrastructure projects, and announced government incentives that may unlock more stock and open new business channels—especially for first-home buyers and those targeting new builds.
- Monitor interstate trends: Adapt marketing and engagement strategies to reflect migration flows; where population is shifting, broker opportunities will follow.
- Prepare for a wider range of scenarios: Build flexibility into business planning to respond quickly if the Trump factor delivers either sharper rate cuts (opportunity) or protracted construction cost surges and subdued lending (risk).
Overall, 2025 presents Australian mortgage brokers with a market in transition. Growth will favour those able to adapt to policy shifts, specialise in complex loan solutions, and maintain trust through transparent, well-informed service as conditions remain unsettled.
